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4.11.4 IMPACT ANALYSIS ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY — The transportation impacts of the proposed project are examined in this section in the context of cumulative projected growth in San Joaquin.County by 2025.For this analysis,the estimated growth in the Mountain House community at 2025 buildout was added to forecasts of housing and employment in the reminder of San Joaquin County and the surrounding region,including the nine-county Bay Area,the four-county Sacramento area,and Stanislaus County. The projected 2025 residential land use of College Park would consist of 1,781 medium-high to high-density multifamily units and 521 single-family units.In addition,the 2025 College Park non-residential land use includes 1.5 acres of neighborhood commercial, 16.8 acres of office commercial, and 86.5 acres of limited industrial land use. Other land uses include neighborhood and community park,elementary schools,and public facilities. See Table 3-2 in Chapter 3,"Project Description,"of this EIR for further information. Approved Roadway Improvements Of the 12 Neighborhoods in the MHMP area,Neighborhoods E,F,and G in Specific Plan I have been approved for construction.Neighborhoods E and F are currently under construction,with many homes being sold and occupied.It is anticipated that Neighborhood G will be constructed by 2005 or 2006.As part of the approval process for Neighborhoods E,F,and G,a traffic analysis was conducted that determined the traffic improvements required to accommodate traffic associated with these neighborhoods.Many of these were traffic improvements required within Neighborhoods E,F,and G; many others were improvements outside of these neighborhoods but within the MHMP area and vicinity.Because these traffic improvements were approved as part of the approval of Neighborhoods E,F, and G,they are considered part of the background roadway system in this analysis.The approved lane configurations are shown in Figure 4.11-5, and the approved lanes and signals are shown in Figure 4.11-6. Table 4.11-6 is a summary of roadway improvements differentiated as follows: (1)improvements approved — associated with Neighborhoods E, F,and G; (2)improvements approved associated with the MHMP EIR; and(3) improvements required based on the current analysis to accommodate existing background traffic(i.e., Neighborhoods E,F,and G plus 2005).As indicated in Table 4.11-6, all improvements planned under the MHMP _ and required based on the current analysis to accommodate background traffic have been approved in the context of the Neighborhood E,F,and G approvals. As described previously,mitigation in the MHMP EIR(M 4.12-1[h])required conducting annual traffic monitoring and review/reporting on the progress of the required transportation improvements. In addition,the County can adopt additional findings at that time related to whether the adopted trigger points for transportation improvements and the proposed project's fair share of costs should be revised to ensure the timely construction of — needed improvements, as a condition of further development approvals. Travel Demand Analysis for College Park The traffic modeling was based on the most current(2004) SJCOG regional travel demand model, as described below. San Joaquin County Model Description As part of the SJCOG's recent modeling efforts,the SJCOG model was calibrated with 200 count locations for the a.m.period.One of the SJCOG model calibration criteria requires that the total daily Vehicle Miles Traveled(VMT) in the calibrated model,which is generally used for air quality modeling analysis,be consistent with VMT estimates contained in the Highway Pavement Management System(HPMS).The total daily VMT in the calibrated — EDAW College Park at Mountain House Specific Plan III Draft EIR Transportation 4.11-18 San Joaquin County