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4. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 4.4 TRANSPORTATION AND CIRCULATION r Haul Route Option 1: All trucks entering and exiting the project site would use Blewett Road and Bird Road. Ten percent of trucks would travel on SR 132 west of Bird Road. Ninety percent of trucks access the SR 132/1-5 interchange. Seventy percent of trucks would travel on I-5 north of SR 132. Five percent of trucks would travel on I-5 south of SR 132. Fifteen percent of trucks would travel on SR 132 east of I-5. Haul Route Qption 2: Similar distribution to Haul Route Option 1, with the exception that trucks will have the option of using Koster Road for access to and from SR 132. In this case,it is anticipated that trucks leaving the site and traveling east on SR 132 will make right turns at Koster Road/SR 132. Trucks entering the site from the east may make left turns at Koster Road/SR 132. Trucks entering the site from I-5 north of SR 132 would likely travel east on SR 132 and tum right at Koster Road. Due to difficulties in making left turns,it is anticipated ` that few trucks would leave the site traveling northbound on Koster Road and making a left turn to westbound SR 132. ` The anticipated project traffic volumes and distribution are shown in Figures 7 through 10(in Appendix C)for Haul Route Options 1 and 2,respectively. Future (Year 2025) Traffic Volumes The San Joaquin County travel model is maintained by the San Joaquin County Council of Governments(SJCCOG). The model includes peak-hour directional travel volume estimates for the base year 1999 and for the future year 2025. Travel model data provided by SJCCOG is presented in Appendix C. The future peak-hour volumes were estimated base on the Increment y Method described in the Council of Fresno County Governments Recommended Procedures for Using Traffic Projections from the Fresno COG Travel Model dated January 2002. Although the Increment Method was developed for the Fresno County model,it is the opinion of Peters " Engineering Group that the methods are applicable to other travel models. The Increment Method estimates the future growth in traffic volumes by determining the difference between the r year 2025 travel model and the base year travel model volumes. This difference indicates the growth in traffic volumes that is predicted by the model between the base year and the year 2025. This growth is then added to the existing volumes determined by actual traffic counts. Future y turning movements were determined based on the methods presented in Chapter 8 of the Transportation Research Board National Cooperative Highway Research Program Report 255 entitled "Highway Traffic Data for Urbanized Area Project Planning and Design." In some instances,the travel model predicted negative growth. Because travel models can be less reliable in rural areas, a minimum growth rate of 2.5% per year should be used even if the model predicts less as a conservative approach. Therefore, a minimum annual growth rate of 2.5 percent was maintained for each turning movement. Future traffic volumes without the project are presented in Figures 23 and 24(Appendix Q. Future-with-project traffic volumes are presented in Figures 25 through 28 for Haul Route Options I and 2(Appendix Q. RMC Pwis�vemahs Quany Ming end Red,,Ooo Prolan 4.4-13 ESA/203015 Adminisv ve Daft ERR Minch 2004