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Mr. Russell Chapin <br /> 1766 W. Monte Diablo Avenue <br /> Page 4 of 7 <br /> Model of Groundwater Plume — ATC utilized MODFLOW to model the hydrogeology <br /> and MT3D to model contaminant fate and transport in the MODFLOW model. The <br /> MODFLOW model was a simplified single-layer (25 feet thick) model, the hydraulic <br /> gradient was assumed to be westward at 0.0125. As noted above, EHD believes the soil <br /> profile for the site indicates a 2- or 3-layer model may be more appropriate for the site. <br /> The MT3D model was simulated through two runs. Both runs included modeling for <br /> dispersion, advection and biodegradation. Run 1 was simulated for a 10-year period at <br /> 1-year intervals with no recharge reflux (percolating rainwater carrying additional <br /> contaminants to ground water); this would be the more optimistic model with processes <br /> operating to diminish the plume, and none operating to increase it. Run 2 simulated fate <br /> and transport for a 30-year period over 3-year intervals and did incorporate recharge <br /> reflux. Neither model incorporated reflux from the submerged sorbed hydrocarbon mass <br /> (impacted soil in the saturated zone). <br /> ATC presented a contaminant mass estimate of 2.59 pounds of dissolved TPH-g <br /> currently impacting groundwater. It would appear from Figure 7 and ATC's calculation <br /> that analytical data from groundwater samples collected from the extraction wells was <br /> not utilized and the dissolved contaminant mass has been underestimated (VW-6 2800 <br /> ppb, EW-1 4300 ppb, EW-2 2900 ppb and EW-3 8300 ppb TPH-g). EHD believes the <br /> initial dissolved mass (or average concentration) utilized in the models to be too low. <br /> Run 1, the more optimistic scenario, predicts TPH in MW-3 will continue to decline, from <br /> 1700 ppb in November 2003 to approximately 3 ppb in three years, similar concentration <br /> decreases were predicted for TPH in MW-1 and MW-4. ATC states that the predicted <br /> contaminant concentration trend is in accordance with the trends observed over the last <br /> 5 years. However, the observed contaminant concentration trends incorporated active <br /> remediation, the predicted trends are for natural attenuation only. <br /> Run 2 predicted a TPH high concentration of 6906 ppb in MW-3 in 1998 decreasing to <br /> 270 ppb in 2004, remaining fairly stable at that concentration over a period of years due <br /> to equilibrium between recharge reflux and contaminant degradation. The average TPH <br /> concentration in 1998 was 7450 ppb; the only reported TPH-g concentration in 2004 was <br /> 2100 ppb; clearly the model for natural attenuation for this well was not validated even <br /> with active remediation ongoing during the general period. EHD believes that ATC's <br /> model is not valid and cannot be utilized to justify site closure or ending ground water <br /> monitoring. <br /> Groundwater Receptor Survey—Appears to be adequate. <br /> -No Further Action Required (NFAR) Reporting Criteria — EHD has no disagreement <br /> with the first two criteria. <br /> Criterion 3: Contaminants remaining in the vadose zone cannot migrate in soil vapor or <br /> leach at concentrations that would cause groundwater to exceed water quality objectives <br /> — This may be true, but undemonstrated for vadose zone soil; however the soil model <br /> doesn't account for rising or falling ground water elevation or for contaminant flux from <br /> submerged impacted soil. <br />