|
WOODARD
<br /> &CURRAN
<br /> increase the SCWSP supply shortfall in a single-dry year from 25 to 36 percent(11 percent increase), and from 16 to
<br /> 29 percent(13 percent increase)during the third consecutive year of multiple-dry years by 2040 (EKI, 2019).15
<br /> While this WSA does not account for these reductions,an optional analysis was run to evaluate the potential impact of
<br /> the Bay-Delta Plan voluntary agreements, should they be implemented using a 40 percent unimpaired flow criteria.
<br /> Table 26 below shows how the supply and demand comparison is affected by the voluntary agreements under single-
<br /> dry and multiple-dry year conditions.As shown in the table,the City's total projected demands(the City's planned and
<br /> future uses and the Project)could be met by projected supplies through 2025 under the single-dry year condition,with
<br /> 4, 16, and 3 percent supply shortages in years 2030, 2035, and 2040, respectively. Projected demands could be met
<br /> in multiple-dry year conditions through 2025 and at Project buildout in 2040,with 0.2 and 12 percent supply shortages
<br /> in years 2030 and 2035, respectively. Per the 2015 UWMP, the City has planned for water shortages and would
<br /> increase water conservation programming, enact more stringent water conservation measures and/or the appropriate
<br /> stage of the Water Shortage Contingency Plan described in the City's 2015 UWMP across the entire service area,
<br /> including the Project area,to further ensure demand does not exceed supply should the voluntary agreement cutbacks
<br /> be implemented.
<br /> Table 26: Supply and Demand Comparison Accounting for Voluntary Agreements
<br /> 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
<br /> Buildout
<br /> Total Supply' Single-Dry Year AFY 9,790 8,747 8,782 8,817 11,354
<br /> Total Demand-Single-Dry Year(AFY)2 5,573 7,632 9,157 10,266 11,732
<br /> Sufficient Supply? I Yes Yes Yes No No No
<br /> Supply Exceeded By: 0% 0% 4% 16% 3%
<br /> Multiple-Dry Year AFY
<br /> Total Supply' First Year 10,578 10,623 10,668 10,714 14,007
<br /> Second Year 10,747 10,793 10,839 10,887 14,275
<br /> Third Year 10,414 10,457 10,501 10,545 13,746
<br /> Total Demand-Multiple-Dry Year All Years (AFY)2 5,573 7,632 9,157 10,266 11,732
<br /> Multiple-Dry Year
<br /> Sufficient Su I ?3 First Year Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
<br /> pp y' Second Year Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
<br /> Third Year Yes Yes No No Yes
<br /> Supply Exceeded By: 0% 0% 0.2% 12% 0%
<br /> Notes:
<br /> 1. Source:City of Lathrop 2019 WSMP(EKI,2019),Table 5-12 and Table 5-13.Single-dry year supply reduced by 11%beginning in 2025.
<br /> Third year of multiple-dry year supply reduced by 13%beginning in 2025.
<br /> 2. Source:City of Lathrop updated demand projections(August 2020)(Appendix B). City demand estimates for the River Islands area have
<br /> been excluded,and projected River Islands Phase1 and Phase 2 potable demands,phased in five-year increments through 2040 were then
<br /> added to the City demand totals.
<br /> 3. If the supply is not sufficient,the City will enact conservation and demand management measures to ensure demand does not exceed supply.
<br /> 15 Based on information presented by Oakdale Irrigation District(OID)and SSJID,combined OID and SSJID formula water available under
<br /> 40%unimpaired flow criteria will be 381,000 AFY during 1976-1977,and 422,000 AFY during 2015-2016.These values were used for the
<br /> basis of a single-dry year and the third consecutive year of multiple-dry years,respectively.The SCWSP projected supplies are calculated
<br /> as 50%of combined OID and SSJID formula water available,similar to what was assumed in SSJID's 2015 UWMP.
<br /> Califia(0011533.00) 42 Woodard&Curran, Inc.
<br /> River Islands Phase 2 Development Water Supply Assessment September 2020
<br />
|