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this approach, a poisson distribution model was used to calculate the <br />probability of occurrence of various magnitude earthquakes along the <br />Bear Mountains and Melones faults in a 100 -year period. The results <br />of this analysis confirmed that the probability of having the MCE <br />along these faults in a 100 -year period is low. Furthermore, the <br />analysis indicates that the preferred MPE for these faults is a <br />magnitude 5.7 earthquake. This MPE estimate in consistent with the <br />maximum historic earthquake (magnitude 5.7, Oroville Earthquake) <br />associated with a northern segment of Sierran Foothills fault system. <br />Ground accelerations resulting from earthquakes may be estimated from <br />widely accepted, published relationships that relate ground shaking to <br />earthquake magnitude and distance from the causative fault or earth- <br />quake epicenter. For the San Joaquin County Landfill Development <br />site, relationships developed by Seed and Schnabel and published in <br />Seed and Idriss (1982) were used to estimate the level of mean peak <br />horizontal ground accelerations that may occur at the site due to MPEs <br />occurring in the area. Because the MPE for the Bear Mountains fault <br />zone and the Melones fault zone are the same, and the Bear Mountains <br />zone is nearest the site (see Plate C-1), ground accelerations at the <br />site for the MPE on the Bear Mountains fault zone will be greater than <br />for the Melones fault zone. Design mean peak horizontal ground <br />accelerations (0.10g), therefore, will result from the MPE (magni- <br />tude 5.7) on the Bear Mountains fault zone, which has been mapped <br />28 km east of the site. <br />