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calculated effluent fractions facilitate the use of a mass balance model to estimate changes in the selected water <br /> quality parameters due to an increase in WQCF discharge. Historic Delta water quality data and historic Manteca <br /> effluent data were then used to estimate incremental changes in the Delta under the maximum full build-out <br /> WQCF discharge scenario of 27 mgd. <br /> Potential incremental increases in the fully mixed river temperature, downstream of the discharge outfall,were <br /> extrapolated from the dilution analysis model runs for two one-year periods: October 1991 through September <br /> 1992, a critically dry year,and January 2002 through December 2002, a normal dry year(see Section 4.9 and <br /> Appendix F for details on modeling approach). The fully mixed downstream dilution of the discharge for the <br /> proposed project condition was compared to that simulated for the existing condition to determine potential <br /> project-specific temperature increases where the effluent initially becomes fully-mixed with the river(i.e., <br /> downstream of thermal plume). Comparison of the simulated dilution/temperature under the proposed project to <br /> that modeled for the existing condition facilitated determination of the downstream effect. <br /> Summary statistics were used to determine whether the project-specific incremental increase in fully mixed <br /> downstream river/Delta water dilution/temperatures would be expected to cause population- or community-level <br /> effects on aquatic biota inhabiting the San Joaquin River and Delta system, or result in adverse effects to <br /> individual organisms that are listed under the federal and/or State ESA. The scientific basis for making this <br /> determination considered: <br /> 1. the magnitude and frequency of the incremental change in temperature; <br /> 2. the seasonal temperature regime of the San Joaquin River/Delta downstream of the discharge outfall under <br /> the existing condition and proposed project conditions; <br /> 3. the available scientific literature regarding thermal tolerances of key fish species of primary management <br /> concern; <br /> 4. the nature of the use of the lower San Joaquin River by fish species of primary management concern; and <br /> 5. factors dictating lower San Joaquin River temperatures during the summer and fall months of the year. <br /> THRESHOLDS OF SIGNIFICANCE <br /> The significance criteria described below were developed for use in assessing potential impacts to fisheries and <br /> aquatic resources resulting from Manteca WQCF effluent discharges and constituent loading under the proposed <br /> project or its alternatives. Application of these significance criteria to findings determined from modeled output <br /> was used to make impact significance determinations. Effects of the proposed project on fish or other aquatic <br /> resources were considered significant if the project would: <br /> ► cause changes to San Joaquin River and/or Delta water quality, outside the zone of initial mixing, of sufficient <br /> magnitude and frequency to adversely affect an aquatic species' long-term population levels in these water <br /> bodies; <br /> ► degrade the quality of San Joaquin River and/or Delta aquatic habitats used by special-status aquatic species, <br /> including habitat(s)designated as critical habitat,to an extent that could cause a reduction in species <br /> abundance or long-term population levels(special-status species are defined as those that are currently listed <br /> as endangered or threatened under the federal ESA or State CESA and species formally proposed for federal <br /> and/or State listing as threatened or endangered); <br /> ► cause sufficient degradation in near-field water quality that would substantially delay,block,or otherwise <br /> substantially interfere with the success of upstream adult immigration or downstream juvenile emigration of <br /> Manteca WQCF and Collection System Master Plans EIR EDAW <br /> City of Manteca 4.13-19 Fisheries and Aquatic Resources <br />