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Administrative Draft Environmental Impact Report Gill Medical Center Project 4.2.3.2 Cumulative Condition To analyze cumulative impacts of the project in combination with other expected future growth, the amount and location of growth expected to occur must be predicted. Section 1513O(b) of the CEQA Guidelines allows two methods of prediction: Either: a. A list of relevant past,present and probable future projects producing related or cumulative impacts, including, if necessary, those projects outside the control of the Agency, or b. A summary of projections contained in adopted general plan or related planning document or in a prior adopted or certified environmental document that described or evaluated regional or area-wide conditions contributing to the cumulative impact. For the purpose of this EIR, a cumulative analysis projections approach is used based on buildout of the San Joaquin County 2035 General Plan as analyzed in the San Joaquin County 2035 General Plan EIR (San Joaquin County 2016). Given the historic county growth rate, development patterns established under the General Plan, and other constraints, it would be infeasible for every parcel in the county to develop to its maximum theoretical buildout potential within the 2035 planning horizon.Therefore, this EIR's cumulative analysis focuses on growth that is reasonably foreseeable to occur within the 2035 planning horizon consistent with historic growth trends and the assumptions and cumulative analysis methodology contained in the San Joaquin County 2035 General Plan EIR (San Joaquin County 2016).The only exception to this approach is the cumulative traffic analysis which is based on a future 2040 cumulative traffic scenario as further described in Section 4.17 Transportation. 4.2.3.3 San Joaquin County Growth Projections The project site is located in San Joaquin County just north of the City of Stockton.The County encompasses over 900,000 acres (about 1,425 square miles) and is bordered by Sacramento County to the north, Stanislaus County to the south, Amador and Calaveras Counties to the east, and Contra Costa and Alameda Counties to the west. Table 4.1-2 presents the distribution of 2010 San Joaquin County population between the cities and unincorporated county outside of city Spheres of Influence and summarizes the projected population growth from 2010 to 2035 (San Joaquin County 2016).As shown, a majority of new population growth would occur as part of city expansions (218,300 or 83.48 percent) compared to growth resulting from unincorporated county development outside of city Spheres of Influence (43,200 or 16.52 percent). While the County 2035 General Plan allows for development in some areas within city Spheres of Influence, it is expected that most of the anticipated growth in Spheres of Influence would occur as a result of city annexations and expansions.According to the San Joaquin County General Plan, it can be expected that by 2035 much of the land currently within each city Sphere of Influence will be annexed into each respective city. Introduction to Impact Analysis 4-5 October 2021