SU0012766 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

r) CHAPTER 4. FORECASTS AND AvUnON DEMANDS r Stockton Metropolitan Airport serves the needs of the northern San Joaquin Valley and southern Sacramento Valley for general aviation and air cargo operations. Until recently, airline service was also provided from this airport. Once the low-fare airlines began operating in Sacramento and the Bay Area and airline service was deregulated, the airlines chose to discontinue service from Stockton since they could capture the Stockton and San Joaquin passengers at Sacramento or Bay Area airports without the expense of establishing a presence at Stockton. With the high airline fares charged out of Stockton and the low fares charged out of Sacramento and the Bay ` Area, it became more economical for passengers to travel to Sacramento or the Bay Area than to use the Stockton facility. In 1978 annual enplanements from Stockton reached a high of 142,710 and the steadily Y � decreased thereafter to.a total of 13,430 in 1994 and zero in 1996. Past performance, therefore, cannot be used as a tool for forecasting potential airline traffic out of Stockton Metropolitan i l ' Airport. The general aviation traffic generated at airports throughout the United States and California has shown very little increase since 1980 as represented by the total number of active general aviation aircraft and private pilots operating during this period. Statistics from the Federal Aviation Administration Statistical Handbook on Aviation, which is included in the California Aviation System Planning Inventory Manual, are shown for the active general aviation aircraft in Table No. 4-1 and for the active pilots by type of rating in Table No. 4-2 for both the United States and California. In many areas there has been extensive growth of general aviation and in other areas there has been a decrease in general aviation activities. These changes are usually associated with changes in population and economic conditions. The large increases in cost of operating the general aviation aircraft, including the increase in cost of the aircraft fuel and other support facilities, has had a significant influence on the number of persons that own and fly aircraft. For the Stockton Metropolitan Airport the relationship between number of passengers generated and the population, as well as the number of based aircraft and pilots and the population, is the } best tool to use in forecasting aviation activity. Population statistics have been obtained from the publication, Population Estimates for California Cities and Counties, produced by the State of California Department of Finance and by the California Aviation System Planning Inventory Manual. The total population in the Stockton Regional Airport Area of Influence is shown in Table No. 4-3. In this table the population of each of the counties which would normally �r contribute passengers to a Stockton airport and the total air trade area population are indicated. The total air trade area population was determined by using 100 percent of the population of San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Calaveras, Tuolumne, and Mariposa Counties and using only seven percent of the population in Merced, Alameda,.and Contra Costa Counties. 4-1