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The amount of traffic using a specific airport is a function of- - Location of airport with relation to potential passengers - Location of competing airport with relation to potential passengers - Relative airline fare at airport and at competing airport - Markets served by airlines operating from airport and from competing airports r - Frequency of service from airport and competing airports. F If the Stockton Metropolitan Airport has frequent service to most major airports by a low-fare airline and competing airlines do not offer equal service, then Stockton Airport will attract passengers from greater distances than if equal service is offered at each airport. Experience at other airports has shown that when a low-fare airline begins operation, even at a major airport, the total passenger traffic generated at that airport increases significantly because the low fares draw passengers to the airline that would otherwise use other modes of transportation or would not travel. Travel forecasts presented in Tables 4-3 and 4-4 are based on conservative estimates of distribution of traffic between adjacent airports and the introduction of good quality low-fare airline service at Stockton Metropolitan Airport. The population forecasts for the air trade area to the Fresno Yosemite International Airport have been similarly calculated and included in Table No. 4-4. In this analysis it was assumed that 93 percent of the Merced population and 100 percent of the Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Madera Counties would utilize the Fresno Yosemite International Airport. In these analyses all data for the year 1994 and earlier are actual and all other data are forecast. A study has been conducted to determine the relationship between passenger enplanements and population (E/P Ratio) for San Joaquin County, Stanislaus County, Sacramento County, Fresno 1 , County, and the State of California. For San Joaquin County and Stanislaus County the analysis was extended to the forecast population beyond 1994 and for all of the other areas it included actual population through 1989 or 1994. These data are shown on Table No. 4-5. In addition, potential passenger enplanements generated from San Joaquin County and Stanislaus County for different E/P Ratios ranging from 1 to 3 have been included in this table. It will be noted that . for San Joaquin County the E/P Ratio was 0.65 for 1975 and decreased to 0.03 in 1994. The E/P t • Ratio for Stanislaus County dropped from 0.28 in 1975 to 0.14 to 1989. For Sacramento County the E/P Ratio ranged from 2.62 to 3.25. These high values are the result of the low-fare airline s operations in Sacramento plus the passengers from the San Joaquin Valley that are traveling to + Sacramento. Fresno County data show an E/P Ratio of 1.34 to 1.71 during this time frame and all of California showed an E/P Ratio of 2.69 to 4.06. The California statistics are somewhat high because of the large number of international passengers that use San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego airports. The Fresno County figures are not warped as much as the San Joaquin County figures by large numbers of transfer passengers or the influence of the low-cost airline'operations in Sacramento br the Bay Area. This E/P Ratio for Fresno will be decreased to:a range;of 0:66 to 0.87;if the entire air trade area for the Fresno Yosemite International Airport is considered. There are still significant passengers that travel by car to the Bay Area or Sacramento rather than use the Fresno < a: -Yosemite4nterhational Airport because of:the higher fares on airlines:,operating;out .of Fresno.-, !.' 4-5 k