SU0012766 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

I Based on.this analysis it appears reasonable to assume that if a low-fare airline began operations from Stockton Metropolitan Airport, an E/P Ratio of at least 1.0 could be realized. Based on the analysis for population in the Stockton Air Trade Area and using an Enplanement/Population (E/P) Ratio of 1.0, a forecast of potential passenger enplanernent has been prepared and is shown in Table No. 4-6. For comparative purposes a similar analysis has been prepared for the Fresno Air Trade Area. From this analysis it is indicated that in 1997 approximately 1.25 million passengers per year would be generated in the Stockton Air Trade Area if a low-fare airline started good service out of the Stockton Metropolitan Airport and that the traffic generated could exceed 3 million passenger enplanements by the year 2040. Low fare airlines not only attract passengers to an airport, but they create new passengers that would not travel by air when fares are higher. In 1993 United Airlines prepared a study to determine the revenue generated by San Joaquin County passengers at all airports. Their study indicated that total sales amounted to approximately $72 million during the year. This relates to approximately 500,000 enplaned passengers. Conferences with travel agents in the Stockton/Modesto area indicate that in 1996 ticket sales show 800,000 to 900,000 enplaned passengers per year out of the Stockton/Modesto area and that 60 percent of these travel to Sacramento International Airport and the rest travel to the Bay Area to board their aircraft. The Sacramento International Airport currently has 3.5 million enplaned passengers,including the 650,000 generated from the Stockton/San Joaquin area. The potential passenger enplanements generated in the Stockton Regional Air Trade.Area is one- third the current traffic at Sacramento International Airport. The low-fare airlines can be expected to continue to ignore the Stockton Metropolitan Airport as long as they can capture the passengers at Sacramento and Bay Area airports, but as soon as one airline begins operation at Stockton Metropolitan Airport with low-fare service, other low-fare airlines will no doubt follow to avoid losing their share of the market. With this large a potential market it is reasonable to expect a low-fare airline service operating out of Stockton in the future but it is difficult to predict when this will happen. Forecast aircraft operations and based aircraft at the Stockton Metropolitan Airport have been prepared based on the Enplanement to Population Ratio Analysis and utilizing a similar analysis for based aircraft. The analysis has been prepared for two scenarios. Scenario No. 1 assumes normal growth of airline operations with no low-fare airline operating at Stockton, and the results of this analysis are shown in Table No. 4-7. Scenario No. 2 has been prepared assuming that the low-fare airline enters the market in 1997, and the results of this analysis are shown in Table No. 4-8. It will be noted that there is forecast to be significant growth in annual operations, particularly if a low-fare airline enters the market, but that the total based aircraft will not be significantly higher than existed in 1990, due largely to the large drop-off in based aircraft between 1990 and 1995. .� The forecast annual operations presented in Table No. 4-8 have been reduced to Average Day R Aircraft Operations for the noise analysis and these are included in Table No. 4-9. k f 4-8