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ARCADIS GERAGHTY&MILLER <br /> requires an investigator to make a calculation which partitions the <br /> total amount reported in the sample analysis into the amount sorbed <br /> and the amount in the sample which exists in the pore liquids as a <br /> dissolved fraction. Next a calculation must be made which relates <br /> the constituent amount sorbed to the amount that is desorbed and <br /> the rate at which the desorption (into the dissolved phase) occurs. <br /> Next, the rate of advection in the moving groundwater must be <br /> identified. Next, the rate of migration of a constituent must be <br /> related to the rate of movement of site groundwater by a <br /> retardation factor. This rate of migration must be further modified <br /> to account for the amount of attenuation of the compound due to <br /> dispersion and biodegradation. This series of calculations must be <br /> performed for each constituent of interest which is identified and <br /> quantified in the soil analysis. <br /> At each step of the calculation process, there are inherent and <br /> significant sources of error which ultimately make this <br /> quantification process highly uncertain. For example, the above- <br /> described partitioning calculations required the use of a partitioning <br /> coefficient. The value of the partitioning coefficient can only be <br /> obtained experimentally and varies significantly with soil type. In <br /> instances where experimentally determined partitioning coefficients <br /> are not available, they can be estimated using regression equations. <br /> The partition coefficient has been recognized as a key parameter in <br /> predicting the environmental fate of organic compounds. The <br /> uncertainty (error) associated with estimation of the partitioning <br /> coefficient, when one is not able to relate the site soil to one <br /> identified under carefully controlled laboratory conditions can be <br /> orders of magnitude (ie. greater that a factor of 10). A second <br /> example of the uncertainty in predicting the potential impact on <br /> groundwater based on a soil sample is that the hydraulic <br /> conductivity of the medium must be know in order to predict the <br /> advective rate of transport. Since the value of hydraulic conductivy <br /> varies significantly with soil type and even spatially within a soil <br /> type, the error associated with a calculation dependent upon <br /> assuming a hydraulic conductivity value or spatially extrapolating a <br /> measured hydraulic conductivity value can also be orders of <br /> magnitude. Theses errors ultimately are multiplicative and can <br /> result a highly misleading assessment of the potential for future <br /> impact to downgradient groundwater. <br /> Because the task of hand-calculating predictions of future <br /> downgradient groundwater impact is so onerous, some <br /> investigators have utilized numerical computer models to ease the <br /> calculation work load. However, it is important to emphasize that <br /> while the burden of the onerous work load has been removed, the <br /> uncertainty attendant to the process described above has not been <br /> removed. To make matters worse. the uncertainty is hidden by the <br />