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$326,800 and revenues by $1,584,000 for a net County surplus of$1,257,000. In that the proposed internal roads would be privately maintained, County costs could be even lower. The projected five times surplus of County revenues over costs of Rancho San Joaquin would be a direct financial asset to the County as it addresses the demand for high-level services in other areas of the County. The golf course would constitute 1.1%, ($3 million) of the project's $283,800,000 assessed valuation at buildout. Because the course will stay in one ownership, its assessed valuation will increase less than the rate of inflation for the foreseeable future. However,this will have an insignificant effect on the projected property taxes the County will receive from the overall project. Theoretically,the property tax revenues of the overall project (and all other residential and commercial property in the county) would not keep pace with inflation, if a 4 percent annual inflation rate is assumed and if assessed valuation is adjusted 2 percent annually as provided by Proposition 13. However, houses turn over fairly frequently (about every 4.2 years), bringing their assessed value back up to market value. Golf Course Need The demand for golf is growing at a sky-rocketing rate.' A number of the growth generators impacting the popularity of golf include: • Higher income • Aging population • Early retirement • More leisure time • Flex time • Residential mobility It is also assumed that an ample increase in golf facilities could generate a doubling of the current golfing population during the next 15 years. Based on these trends in the golf industry and the strong population increase in San Joaquin County, at least 15 golf courses are currently needed in San Joaquin County. Today there are only 11 in the County. Of these, only six are open to the public. In particular,there is a shortage of golf courses in the Tracy area and south San Joaquin County that are open to the public. No new memberships are currently available in the existing Tracy Golf and Country Club, and new memberships are on a waiting list. The Tracy golf course is one of two courses open to the public in the immediate south County area. The other course, is located in Manteca. 'Rooney,John F. The Demand for Golf in the Year 2000, Oklahoma State University. 31