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magnitude. For this study, relationships published in Slemmons (1977) <br /> and Slemmons and Chung (1982) were applied to the previously identi - <br /> fied faults . The resulting MCE estimates are summarized on Table C-1 . <br /> For the faults of the Sierran Foothills fault system (i .e. , Bear <br /> Mountains and Melones fault zones) , the MCE estimates are in agreement <br /> with those of Borchardt (1972) and Woodward-Clyde Consultants (1977) , <br /> presented previously. While MCE estimates for the other faults listed <br /> in Table C-1 are slightly higher, they are at greater distances from <br /> the site and, therefore, are unlikely to produce design ground accel - <br /> erations at the site (see Table C-1) . <br /> Because the MPE is defined as the maximum earthquake that is likely to <br /> occur during a 100-year interval , both the size of potential earth- <br /> quakes and the average frequency at which they occur (i .e. , mean <br /> recurrence interval ) must be considered in developing MPE estimates. <br /> The frequency of earthquake recurrence may be approximated from the <br /> historic earthquake record and/or detailed geologic studies along <br /> individual fault traces that clearly offset dateable geologic units. <br /> For the Sierran Foothills fault system, the historic earthquake record <br /> is of insufficient length to estimate the recurrence interval for <br /> significant earthquakes. The work of previous researchers has result- <br /> ed in estimates of recurrence intervals for faults in the Sierran <br /> Foothills fault system ranging from 100 to greater .than 10,000 years <br /> (Hart, et al . , 1984) . These values compare favorably -with recurrence <br /> intervals estimated using relationships of earthquake magnitude and <br /> fault slip rates, which are published in Slemmons and Chung (1982) . <br /> Available slip-rate data are limited (Clark, et al . , 1984) and suggest <br /> that the MCEs for the fault system (magnitude 6.5) are characterized <br /> by long recurrence intervals ranging from 6,000 to 80,000 'years. This <br /> suggests that the probability of .having the MCE on the Sierran Foot- <br /> hills fault system in the next 100 years is relatively low. <br /> To develop an MPE estimate for the Bear Mountains and Melones fault <br /> zones, a probabilistic analysis was conducted using relationships <br /> developed by Kiremidjian and Shaw and published in Shaw (1982) . In <br />