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4.5 – Greenhouse Gas Emissions Draft Environmental Impact Report February 2021 14800 W. Schulte Road Logistics Center 4.5-5 As outlined in Table 4.5-2, the County of San Joaquin’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sectors (2007), the County of San Joaquin (County) emitted 3,051,996 MT CO2e in 2007 (County of San Joaquin 2014). Table 4.5-2. County of San Joaquin Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sectors (2007) Source Category Annual GHG Emissions (MT CO2e) Electricity 831,532 Transportation 1,350,924 Waste 41,067 Wastewater 2,784 Agriculture 825,689 Total 3,051,996 Source: County of San Joaquin 2014. Notes: GHG = greenhouse gas; MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. Reflects inventory year 2007. Total may not add due to rounding. Potential Effects of Climate Change In California, climate change impacts have the potential to affect sea-level rise, agriculture, snowpack and water supply, forestry, wildfire risk, public health, and electricity demand and supply. The primary effect of global climate change has been a rise in average global tropospheric temperature. Reflecting the long-term warming trend since pre-industrial times, observed mean surface temperature for the decade 2006–2015 was 0.87°C (likely between 0.75°C and 0.99°C) higher than the average over the 1850–1900 period (IPCC 2018). Scientific modeling predicts that continued emissions of GHGs at or above current rates would induce more extreme climate changes during the twenty-first century than were observed during the twentieth century. Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C (1.8°F) of global warming above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C (1.4°F to 2.2°F) (IPCC 2018). Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C (2.7°F) between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate (IPCC 2018). Although climate change is driven by global atmospheric conditions, climate change impacts are felt locally. A scientific consensus confirms that climate change is already affecting California. The Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment identified various indicators of climate change in California, which are scientifically based measurements that track trends in various aspects of climate change. Many indicators reveal discernible evidence that climate change is occurring in California and is having significant, measurable impacts in the s tate. Changes in the state’s climate have been observed, including an increase in annual average air temperature , with record warmth from 2012 to 2016; more frequent extreme heat events; more extreme drought; a decline in winter chill; an increase in cooling degree days and a decrease in heating degree days; and an increase in variability of statewide precipitation (OEHHA 2018). Warming temperatures and changing precipitation patterns have altered California’s physical systems—the ocean, lakes, rivers, and snowpack—upon which the state depends. Winter snowpack and spring snowmelt runoff from the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Mountains provide approximately one-third of the state’s annual water supply. Impacts of climate on physical systems have been observed, such as high variability of snow -water content (i.e., amount of water stored in snowpack), decrease in snowmelt runoff, glacier change (loss in area), rise in sea levels, increase in average lake water temperature and coastal ocean temperature, and a decrease in dissolved oxygen in coastal waters (OEHHA 2018).