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City of Lathrop Travel Demand Model and VMT Methodology October 28, 2020 Page 3 of 7 Base Year Scenario The Base Year Scenario model represents year 2020 "Baseline" conditions in the City of Lathrop.The Base Year Scenario model reflects current local and regional roadways and land use in the Lathrop model area, including those in the River Islands Development area and the Paradise Road Bridge that was recently re-opened to traffic in fall 2020. Land uses in the Base Year Scenario model are placed in 977 Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs), including 167 TAZs in the City of Lathrop. The Base Year Scenario model is calibrated to pre COVID-19 traffic counts and reflects data from multiple sources, including: the California Household Travel Survey (CHTS), American Community Survey (ACS), and Caltrans Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) data. The calibration process ensures that the travel demand model reflects existing year 2020 pre COVID-19 local and regional travel conditions. The Base Year Scenario model was used to determine Baseline VMT for residential, office, retail, and industrial land uses. Cumulative Year Scenario The Cumulative Year Scenario model represents year 2040 conditions in the City of Lathrop. The Cumulative Year Scenario model reflects local and regional roadway improvements and land use projections consistent with the SJCOG Regional Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS), City of Lathrop General Plan, Central Lathrop Specific Plan, City of Manteca General Plan, and City of Ripon General Plan. Land use in the Cumulative Year Scenario model are placed in 1,224 TAZs, including 239 TAZs in the City of Lathrop. For the River Islands Development project, two Cumulative Year Scenario models were developed. The first model included the River Islands Development Approved Project land use (i.e., land uses as reflected in the 2003 SEIR and subsequent addenda),and the second model included the River Islands Development Proposed Phase 2 Project land use (i.e., the modified Phase 2 Project evaluated in the current SEIR). These Cumulative Year Scenario models were used to evaluate and compare VMT and transportation impact of proposed residential, office, retail, and industrial projects for the Approved River Islands Development Project and the Proposed River Islands Development Project. Methodology For each modeling scenario, a model-wide analysis was preformed to obtain daily vehicle trips and travel distance for all TAZs, and the product of daily vehicle trips and travel distance was summed to obtain VMT estimates. Based on the trip origin and destination, vehicle trips were categorized into four trip purpose categories: home-based work, home-based school, home-based other, and non- home-based. Similarly, VMT associated with each vehicle trip is categorized as Residential VMT or Employment VMT. Table 1 provides an overview of vehicle trip purpose and VMT categories.