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Mr.Jolley <br /> February 13, 2020 <br /> Page 16 of 15 <br /> d. Birth rates by age cohort <br /> e. Relevant insurance coverage <br /> 6. Forecast demand growth based on demographic trends. Based on the data collected in Tasks 1- <br /> 4 above, TNDG would develop a model to forecast: <br /> a. Population growth in relevant age groups <br /> b. Future changes in birth rates by age cohort <br /> c. Future growth of the number of medical professionals in relevant areas of specialization <br /> d. Projected demand for new women's health facilities (expressed in terms of square feet <br /> and beds) <br /> Consistent with the anticipated phasing of the proposed project, TNDG's demand projections <br /> would cover a 15-year forecast horizon. <br /> 7. Determine capacity of market to absorb new facilities. Based on the demand projections <br /> developed in Task 6, TNDG would determine the extent to which the market area would be able <br /> to absorb the proposed project without competitively impacting existing facilities. To the extent <br /> competitive impacts are projected, these would be quantified in terms of the degree to which the <br /> market would be "overbuilt" and the period of time it would take for impacted competitors to <br /> resume pre-project occupancy/utilization levels. <br /> 8. Evaluate potential for urban decay in the defined impact area(s). To the extent that the analysis <br /> forecasts negative economic/business impacts to existing facilities, TNDG would make a <br /> determination if such impacts would be severe enough to cause sustained physical impacts <br /> (urban decay) in the market area. <br /> 9. Conduct cumulative impacts analysis, taking into account the proposed competitive impacts of <br /> the proposed project any other comparable projects proposed (or reasonably foreseeable) within <br /> the evaluated impact region. <br /> 10. Prepare Administrative Draft of Urban Decay Study. <br /> 11. Prepare DE/R version of Urban Decay Study. <br /> 12. Respond to public comments on DEIR Urban Decay Study. <br /> 13. Attend Planning Commission and Board of Supervisor hearings for the proposed project <br /> (assumes a total of two hearings). <br /> 16 <br /> ECORP Consulting,Inc. <br /> E N'l'ERONNENTAL IONSI:1I4N-l5 <br />