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jian and Shaw and published in Shaw (1982). In this approach, a poisson distri- <br />bution model was used to calculate the probability of occurrence of various mag- <br />nitude earthquakes along the Bear Mountains and Melones faults in a 100 -year <br />period. The results of this analysis confirmed that the probability of having the <br />MCE along these faults in a 100 -year period is low. Furthermore, the analysis <br />indicates that the preferred MPE for these faults is a magnitude 5.7 earthquake. <br />This MPE estimate is consistent with the maximum historic earthquake <br />(magnitude 5.7, Oroville Earthquake) associated with the northern segment of <br />Sierran Foothills faults. <br />Ground accelerations resulting from earthquakes may be estimated from widely <br />accepted, published relationships that relate ground shaking to earthquake mag- <br />nitude and distance from the causative fault or earthquake epicenter. For the <br />North County Sanitary Landfill site, relationships developed by Seed and Schn- <br />abel and published in Seed and Idriss (1982) were used to estimate the level of <br />mean peak horizontal ground accelerations that may occur at the site due to <br />MPEs occurring in the area. Because the MPE for the Bear Mountains fault zone <br />and the Melones fault zone are the same, and the Bear Mountains zone is near- <br />est the site, ground accelerations at the site for the MPE on the Bear Mountains <br />fault zone will be greater than for the Melones fault zone. Design mean peak <br />horizontal ground accelerations (0.10g), therefore, will result from the MPE <br />(magnitude 5.7) on the Bear Mountains fault zone, which has been mapped <br />28 km east of the site. <br />4.4 HYDROGEOLOGY <br />4.4.1 Regional HydrogeologX <br />Most of the ground water used in eastern San Joaquin County is pumped from <br />the Arroyo Seco and underlying Laguna Formations. Although Quaternary units, <br />such as the Riverbank and Turlock Lake Formations, generally contain less <br />ground water, some wells in the region draw large yields from discontinuous sand <br />and gravel layers within these units. Ground water is primarily recharged by per- <br />colation from surface channels that originate in the foothills of the adjacent Sierra <br />9 Nevada Mountains. <br />Nal <br />Rev. 0 July 20, 1989 <br />