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Aft- A.— "w A.— "w WDOOARR &CURRAN Table 10 summarizes projected SCWSP supplies and demands in normal years, single-dry years, and multiple-dry years from 2020 to 2040. Projected SSJID supplies are held constant over the forecast period. At the same time, demands decrease slightly over this period due to improved agricultural water use efficiencies. Therefore, projected SCWSP shortages decrease over time. As shown in the SSJID 2015 UWMP, SSJID anticipates that minor shortfalls (i.e., less than 2 percent) may be experienced by the SCWSP in normal years, based upon the availability of water supplies in 2010. In single-dry years, SSJID projects that the SCWSP will receive a shortfall of up to 26 percent, based upon SSJID's water supplies in 1977. In a 3-year, multiple-dry year scenario, SSJID projects SCWSP shortages of up to 15 percent in the first year, up to 12 percent in the second year, and up to 17 percent in the third year.The multiple- dry years reliability assumptions are based upon SSJID's experiences from 1990 to 1992. Projected SSJID supplies available to the City in normal years, single-dry years, and multiple-dry years are shown in Table 11. The City anticipates that it will have access to more than 98 percent of its SCWSP supply in normal years. In single-dry years, the City projects that it will receive between 74 and 75 percent of its SCWSP supply. In a 3-year, multiple-dry year scenario, the projected SCWSP allocations range from 85 to 87 percent in the first year, 88 to 90 percent in the second year, and 83 to 85 percent in the third year9. Section 8(a) of the 1995 Water Supply Development Agreement stipulates that reductions in SCWSP deliveries shall be distributed pro rata among the SCWSP participants based upon each participant's allotment. Therefore, it is assumed that the percent shortfalls will be the same percent shortfall experienced by the City in dry years (EKI, 2019). 9 Single-dry year and multi-dry year scenarios are based on historical record.SSJID uses 1977 as the benchmark for a single-dry year type because this was the year with the lowest water supply available to the District.Similarly,SSJID uses 1990-1992 as the benchmark for multi- dry year type because this was the lowest water supply available to the District for a consecutive 3-year period.As a result of what occurred in those year types,deliveries are higher in a multi-year scenario than in a dry-year scenario. Califia(0011533.00) 25 Woodard&Curran, Inc. River Islands Phase 2 Development Water Supply Assessment September 2020